This is a summary of the book titled “The Leader’s guide to managing risk” written by risk consultant K. Scott Griffith published by HarperCollins Leadership in 2023. He worked as America Airlines chief safety officer, and he draws on his experience to mitigate and manage risk. People are focused on success and they put their mind to survive and thrive despite risk.  But when things go awry, risk management is the only thing that can prevent some consequences if we understand the underlying causes of bad outcomes. Sustained success over time demonstrates reliability and risk management teaches reliability and resilience.  Organizational reliability takes it to the next level with a combination of human and systemic factors. Global risk is the largest scope and it can be daunting but can be met. People and organizations can both achieve sustained success.

Reliability is essential for businesses to demonstrate their worth to shareholders and consumers. High performance must be sustainable over time, as failure is inevitable and not a result of perfect performance. Leaders must manage risk based on solid science and understand that companies are groups of people working within systems.

Reliability theory teaches that events always emerge within a probability distribution, and leaders must pay attention to each level of operations to perceive and understand risks. They must also be aware of their personal risk tolerance, which is the level of risk they are willing to tolerate.

To manage risk effectively, leaders must develop "risk intelligence," which is the ability to perceive a risk's severity and potential harmful results. This intelligence is derived from their experience and history with their organization but is subject to psychological and cognitive limitations. Leaders must also be aware of their personal risk tolerance, which should be rational and fact-based.

A system's design determines its reliability, and leaders must understand how it works both when functioning properly and when it fails. Systems come in various forms, from large systems like transportation infrastructure to small personal ones. To predict and manage system performance, leaders must understand the influences that determine the results systems produce. Human reliability maintains system reliability, and systems should optimize core functions while heeding less important functions. Systems can become unreliable due to factors other than flaws or design limitations, such as lack of maintenance, user overload, environmental factors, or human incompetence.

System design is crucial for maintaining system functionality, resilience, and trust. Engineers and designers can create obstacles, redundancies, and recovery mechanisms. Organizations should prioritize training their leaders to manage human and operational risk factors. Human performance is predictable, and organizations can manage and minimize human failures by understanding how performance works and what motivates and shapes it. Inclusive, collaborative work encourages reliable performance.

Organizational reliability is achieved through a combination of human and systemic factors, including effective leadership and various internal and external factors. Leaders must manage risk by inspiring employees to work towards achieving the organization's goals, balancing competing priorities, and understanding the risk of error. They should ensure the company has reliable systems, appropriate resources, and effective working methods.

Leaders can predict human and organizational reliability by assessing future risks through methods like investigations, audits, inspections, employee reports, and predictive risk modeling. These methods have limitations and are subject to human interpretation bias. Predictive risk analysis helps leaders anticipate future risks and mitigate or prevent them, such as preventing accidents or errors in hospitals or transportation systems.

Global risks, such as climate change, can be mitigated by individuals and organizations. Nuclear capabilities can deter war, but cooperation among nations is necessary to address and mitigate it. Parenting can also involve addressing risks like toxic household chemicals and car accidents. 

Overall, understanding and managing these risks is crucial for maintaining organizational reliability.

Between 1995 and 2005, the aviation industry in the United States reduced fatal airline accidents by 78%. This improvement was not due to a single policy but rather the Commercial Aviation Safety Team, which examined various aviation risk dimensions. To manage risk optimally, organizations should follow a "Sequence of Reliability" framework, which starts with understanding the implications of risk and moves to managing systems, organizations, and employees. The best approach varies depending on the specific risk faced.