This is a summary of the book
“Streetlights and shadows: searching for the keys to adaptive decision making”
written by Gary Klein and published by MIT press in 2009. This book is in a
series of books by the author on decision making in complex situations. He has
spent decades interviewing people such as firefighters, soldiers and pilots and
brings us to some common themes and the errors in judgement. People tend to
simplify complex situations until their beliefs become dangerous. This book
teaches ways to avoid that and make us more adaptive. Communication and
feedback are helpful but often misunderstood. He suggests blending intuition
with logical analysis and draws away from guidelines and procedures to tacit
knowledge including intuition, pattern recognition and mental models.
The human eye uses different
systems for daylight and darkness, with "cone cells" focusing on
detail and "rod cells" being more sensitive to faint light. Decision
making should be approached differently in well-known and clearly defined
situations and in ambiguous ones. Most common beliefs about decision making
work in "bright and clear conditions," but they can be limiting or
dangerous.
Incorrect beliefs include teaching people specific procedures, which can
distort thinking and hinder learning and expertise. Cognitive biases, such as
framing and representativeness heuristics, can also distort decision-making.
Using logic instead of intuition is essential for sound decision-making, as
people may overthink and back away from strong initial decisions.
Blocking out several choices and comparing them is also a common belief, but it
takes too long to be useful in most situations. Experts read situational cues
and react when faced with different options, making it crucial to consider both
intuition and logic when making decisions.
In ambiguous situations, reducing
uncertainty by acquiring more information is true, but some problems are
mysteries that require analysis and action. It is important to wait until all
evidence is available before jumping to conclusions. Giving feedback on the
consequences of actions helps employees learn better, but it is easier in
well-ordered situations and more difficult in complex, shifting circumstances.
Drawing inferences from data is the "assembly line" metaphor, where
data and relevance are not self-evident. Create narratives early in a situation
and revise them as new data arrives. To start a project, clearly describe your
goal, but this rule can stall progress in complex and shifting situations.
Instead, set qualitative goals and redefine them as needed, using
"managing by discovery" to gather data and adapt to the situation.
This approach helps in navigating complex situations and making informed
decisions.
Identifying and eliminating the
biggest risks is crucial for effective risk-mitigation plans. However,
inexperienced organizations may struggle with accurate evaluations. Resilience
engineering and an adaptive mindset are essential for quick and effective
responses. Assigning roles and writing ground rules can help define common
ground, but communication is difficult due to individual experiences. Recognize
the fragility of common ground.
To make better decisions in
complex situations, start by shifting your mindset from a "mental
storehouse" to a "circle" of adapting, sense-making, and
decision-making. This involves practicing "unlearning" and
recognizing the importance of intuition and analysis. As you move through life,
you develop, change, and shed your skin, allowing for continual growth and
change.
Make a circle of expertise, with adapting, sense-making, and decision-making
points along the outer edge. This approach allows you to make sense of a
situation and adapt as you act on it.
Switch from explicit knowledge to tacit knowledge, which includes recognizing
patterns, mental models, perceptions, skills, and judgment. Convert tacit
knowledge to explicit knowledge by internalizing it with the deep well of tacit
knowledge.
Become an expert in your field by drawing lessons from experience and
developing sophisticated mental models about your capabilities. Expertise
doesn't prevent mistakes but helps you recognize them more quickly.
Previous book summary: BookSummary61.docx
Summarizing Software: SummarizerCodeSnippets.docx.
Get the Longest Increasing Subsequence:
For example, the LIS of [10, 9, 2, 5, 3, 7,
101, 18] is [2, 5, 7, 101] and its size() is 4.
public static int getLIS(List<Integer>
A) {
if (A == null || A.size() == 0) return 0;
var best = new int[A.size() + 1];
for (int I = 0; I < A.size(); i++)
best[i] = 1;
for (int I = 1; I < A.size(); i++)
{
for (int j = 0; j < I; j++) {
if (A[i] > A[j]) {
best[i] = Math.Max(best[i], best[j] + 1);
}
}
}
List<Integer> b =
Arrays.asList(ArrayUtils.toObject(best));
return b.stream()
.max(Comparator.comparing(Integer::valueOf))
.get();
}
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