Continuous root cause analysis via analysis of time-series events:  

 

Problem statement: Given a method to collect many data points for errors in logs, can there be prediction on the resolution time of the next root-cause   

 

Solution: There are two stages to solving this problem:

1.       Stage 1 – discover root cause and create a summary to capture it

2.       Stage 2 – use a time-series algorithm to predict the relief time.

 

Stage 1:

We start with the hidden weighted matrix that the neural network layer generates and then use that hidden layer to determine the salience using the gradient descent method.     

 

All values are within [0,1] co-occurrence probability range.    

 

The solution to the quadratic form representing the embeddings is found by arriving at the minima represented by Ax = b using conjugate gradient method.  

We are given input matrix A, b, a starting value x, a number of iterations i-max and an error tolerance  epsilon < 1  

 

This method proceeds this way:   

 

set I to 0   

 

set residual to b - Ax   

 

set search-direction to residual.  

 

And delta-new to the dot-product of residual-transposed.residual.  

 

Initialize delta-0 to delta-new  

 

while I < I-max and delta > epsilon^2 delta-0 do:   

 

    q = dot-product(A, search-direction)  

 

    alpha = delta-new / (search-direction-transposed. q)   

 

    x = x + alpha.search-direction  

 

    If I is divisible by 50   

 

        r = b - Ax   

 

    else   

 

        r = r - alpha.q   

 

    delta-old = delta-new  

 

    delta-new = dot-product(residual-transposed,residual)  

 

     Beta = delta-new/delta-old  

 

     Search-direction = residual + Beta. Search-direction  

 

     I = I + 1   

 

Root cause capture – Exception stack traces that are captured from various sources and appear in the logs can be stack hashed. The root cause can be described by  a specific stacktrace, its associated point of time, the duration over which it appears and the time of fix introduced, if known. 

 

Stage 2: A time-series algorithm does not need any attributes other than the historical collection of relief times to be able to predict the next relief time. It only looks at scalar value regardless of the type or factors playing into the relief time of an individual incident or its root cause attributes. The historical data is utilized to predict an estimation on the incoming event as if the relief were a scatter plot along the timeline. Unlike other data mining algorithms that involve additional attributes of the event, this approach uses a single auto-regressive method on the continuous data to make a short-term prediction. The regression is automatically trained as the data accrues

 Gut Feelings: The Microbiome and our health. 

This is a book written by Susie Flaherty and Our Health and is written by MIT press, 2022 

The recent epidemic notwithstanding, the next generations seem more prone to epidemics of chronic, non-infectious, inflammatory diseases.  There is a radical change required in the health care model as suggested by the authors to counter that by centering on the emerging body of research into the human microbiome. Rather than treat the microorganisms that populate the people’s guts as enemies, there must be better understanding of the complex ecosystem each human carries within, and work to create more holistic, preventative health interventions.  

Microorganisms have tremendous potential. This has caused medicine and science to take note.  When people view microorganisms through the lens of germ theory and infectious diseases, they treat it as a conflict between microbial ecosystems. The treatment is usually to prescribe antibiotics without discriminating between the microorganisms. Even if microorganisms contribute to diseases, they live in symbiosis with human hosts and can be instrumental in treating diseases ranging from cancer to neurological conditions. The authors content that microorganisms live in complex sophisticated civilizations that we did not appreciate yet. 

The Human Genome project made significant strides over three decades in addressing chronic inflammatory illnesses via better understanding genetics’ role in those diseases. Yet only 2% of the potential therapeutic targets have been addressed. They call the coexistence of humans and microorganisms a “coevolutionary destiny” 

Our lifestyle and the environment affect the microbiome’s composition which plays a significant role in the immune system function.  The microbiome extends beyond our body and connects us to a global ecosystem of microbes that live everywhere from soil to other creatures. The implications on our health and disease can be understood only when we consider the whole of the earth’s ecosystem as a continuous circle of life. 

Environmental factors that deplete the diversity of gut microbiota trigger poor health. It has been seen in some cases that when people change their dietary habits, overuse antibiotics, and overly sanitize human environments, they lose ancient microorganisms. This forms the hypothesis for “missing microbes” by Martin Blaser. For example, the East African hunter-gatherer tribe – whose diets and lifestyles resemble that of our predecessors, host several beneficial microorganisms that are found absent in other demographics. 

This forms the basis for the suggestion that the prevalence of chronic inflammatory disease in the West with a loss of microbial diversity which can then be addressed by fortifying the probiotics.  But there is no study that can differentiate the probiotics and map the human microbiome as the scientists did with the genome.  

The Human Microbiome project has had five primary aims since its inception which include: 

1. Isolate and identify microbial genome sequences, much like the Human Genome Project. 

2. Establish whether a “core microbiome” exists  

3. Find the relationship between alterations in the microbiome and disease. 

4. Develop new technologies and tools  

5. Reflect on the legal, ethical and social dimensions of microbiome sequencing. 

Good health outcomes entail balancing a complex ecosystem of microorganisms. This is evident in the conditions of homeostasis where there is a balance between states of health and disease.  This approach is paralleled and employed by holistic healing modalities – such as traditional Chinese medicine.  

The microbiome includes microorganisms such as bacteria, fungi, viruses, parasites, protozoa, archaea and yeast. So, bacteria is not the only kind that needs to be studied. Viruses or “virome” are also a key contributor to disease and its effects on health.  

The authors suggest a framework to consider much more complex and multidimensional explanations of the drivers of human health and disease with the notion of “five pillars” which are: genetic predisposition; exposure to certain environmental factors such as pollution; depleted mucosal barrier; immune system dysregulation; and a lack of balance in the microbiome. The easiest to manipulate are gut permeability, immune system function, and the microbiome.  

The gut microbiome influences the development or severity of many disease symptoms including the Gut inflammatory disorders, Obesity, Autoimmunity, Neurological and behavioral disorders, Cancer. A preventative approach to health care will employ predictive computational models.  

The authors argue that we have the power to stop these epidemics of non-infectious, chronic inflammatory diseases, if our scientific discoveries could be put in the microbiome domain at the service of the public health policies.  

The future holds promise with: 

Prebiotics trigger the activity of the colon bacteria. 

Probiotics ingest bacteria such as lactobacillus that people can use to balance the microbiome and boost immune function.  

Correlations are being mapped between strains of probiotics and the treatment of specific diseases. 

Synbiotics – the synergistic combination of prebiotics and postbiotics which can ensure desirable strains of bacteria colonize and survive in the gut. 

Postbiotics – include organic acids, peptides and enzymes. One way of consuming postbiotics is through fermenting foods.  

Psychobiotics – Microbiome research could result in the creation of a new class of probiotics to treat nervous system diseases such as mental health disorders and neurodegenerative diseases. 

Emerging health strategies include everything from prebiotics to psychobiotics. 

The authors summarize that these emerging fields of science benefit demand our investments in our time, talent, and resources to develop a roadmap for translating current and future scientific information into implementable clinical interventions that could change our collective destiny for the better. 

 

Giving criticism

 

This is a summary of the book: the power of positive criticism by Hendrie WEISINGER, Ph.D.

The main takeaways:

·        Criticism must be embraced and valued as a developmental process, essential to learning, growth and success.

·        Positive criticism recognizes the merits and demerits of a situation and then evaluates them, looking for improvement.

·        What must be communicated and why must be very clear and required.

·        Expectations and criteria for criticism must both be clearly expressed

·        Positive criticism aims for improvement, so first positives must be recognized.

·        The recipient’s motives must be understood, and criticism must be framed so that the recipient will improve her performance.

·        Words must be chosen carefully, avoiding negative language and offering specific solutions.

·        Help with changes must surely be offered, so the recipients do not feel alone.

·        A partnership must be formed with the recipient to make change happen.

·        One’s own emotional state must be recognized so that there is calmness under stress

Criticism is a complex, essential and powerful process. One of the ways to remain close to truth is by evaluation of our welfare. It is essential because so many things depend on it. It is powerful because it can shape the future.

Criticism can assess the merits and demerits of a situation and make appropriate judgements. It also brings out the best from ourselves and those around us.

The following are some of the tips to exercise it cautiously:

1.       Positively receiving criticism is essential to good health. It is not the same as “feedback”. Appreciate it.

2.       Criticize strategically where the one giving it is but an instrument to make the recipient more productive.

3.       Be improvement oriented regardless of the comfort level and suggest curative actions.

4.       Protecting the self-esteem of the recipient goes a long way.

5.       Begin a criticism with a positive intent statement so the recipient knows where you are coming from.

6.       Criticizing your criticism helps you know it is apt.

7.       Involving the recipient in the criticism process keeps everyone open and minimizes defensiveness.

8.       Qualifying an appreciation within a criticism with a “but” is inappropriate. Offering sincere positives is good practice.

9.       Giving a clear direction to what we want will be a clearer message.

10.   As with most delivery, the timing must be right.

11.   Always minding the surroundings, the time and place to criticize someone must be observed. A rule of thumb is to never criticize when you are angry.

12.   Socrates used to ask questions that would guide the recipients to discover solutions to their problems.

13.   When giving the same criticism repeatedly, it is better to change our behavior to help drive the change in the other person.

14.   Criticism can often find its roots in unmet, uncommunicated expectations. Examining them to be realistic and adjusting them might also help.

15.   Acknowledging that criticism is subjective even when it is based on objective facts helps smoothen perception differences.

16.   Putting motivation in the criticism is a good habit. We must begin our own motivational assumptions and those of each recipient.

17.   Using stories, examples and metaphors help to convey the message.

18.   It is a development process so it should not be one-time effort and must be ongoing.

19.   Knowing the criteria for criticism is important to both the giver and the receiver.

20.   Listening to one’s thoughts and processing them with rationality helps articulate criticism.

21.   Staying cool, calm and collected by practicing a relaxation response prior to conveying a criticism helps the giver.

22.   Criticism is a learning mechanism and must be adapted to stressful situations. Relying on informal relationships, timing, ambiguity and self-restraint under these circumstances help.

23.   Change becomes easier when there is a partner

24.   Some targets of criticism are quite difficult to say anything to. Criticizing a customer, a boss or ethics can be considered out of line, but it can still be presented to help them reach their goal.

25.   Immunizing oneself against negativity by clarifying our own thoughts and feelings help us with our work.

26.   Emotions during criticism are perceived more than the message so being mindful of how we say it is also important.

27.   Habits are infectious so positive criticism will circle back around.