This is a summary of the book titled “The Perfect Swarm - The Science of Complexity in Everyday Life” written by Len Fischer and published by Basic Books in 2009. The author is a physicist who is writing about group behavior in a style that reflects humor and wit while drawing on incredible gamut of evidence from experiments, historical events, contemporary cases and real-life experiences. His coverage of group behavior might be exciting for professionals in all walks of life. He cites unbelievable examples such as self-organizing locust swarms and fish schools, progression from chaos to order without any guided intelligence, positive feedback and chain reactions throwing into a chaos while “negative feedback” stabilizing the group, swarm without leader or roadmap hitting the goal, and such others. He tells us a group uses one of three tactics to reach a consensus regardless of right or wrong: deciding by majority, debating till agreement, or using swarm intelligence. Almost always, a group of experts outperforms individual members in making decisions. When you face many options, look for patterns in information, but test them to make sure they are reliable and decide on a solution that surpasses your expectations.
The science of complexity studies the rules and processes of self-organization, allowing complex structures and relationships to emerge out of chaos without a central director or single intelligence. Swarm behavior becomes swarm intelligence when a group can solve a problem collectively in a way that individuals within the group cannot. Systems exhibit two types of dynamic patterns: cycles as in a family quarrel and adaptive systems as in cheering becoming a unison. Swarms have no leaders, but members can pass information to one another through observation and rules.
Crowds have emergent complex structures that arise from physical and social forces between individuals. Certain phenomena, such as positive feedback and chain reactions, can throw a swarm back into chaos. Positive feedback, such as between a microphone and an amplifier, can lead to a loud sound and cause a system to crash, while chain reactions, like locusts feeling happy to congregate can lead to swarms of up to 100 billion locusts and a human running in a neighborhood in Columbus, Ohio believing a tidal wave was coming, was joined by everyone in the neighborhood one by one.
Negative feedback balances destabilizing forces, as described by Adam Smith's "invisible hand" theory where prices stabilize after instability or disturbance.
In city streets, humans and bees follow 3 similar principles of swarming, avoiding collisions, aligning with their closest bees, and attracting each other. This behavior is similar to how humans lead crowds, even when they don't know the leader or target. Ant colonies use pheromones to find the shortest route to and from scarce resources, drawing more ants to follow the shortest trail. This phenomenon can be used to succeed in the market by imitating others.
People move like ants, establishing distinct pedestrian lanes and maintaining traffic flow at a certain population density. Traffic clogs can be managed by urban designers taking traffic flow into account, such as widening crowded areas or placing pillars strategically in buildings. In a panic, people follow the swarm about 60% of the time and search for alternative means of escape about 40% of the time. Planning emergency strategies in advance is crucial to avoid panics and ensure safety.
To make decisions in a group, individuals can either vote or generate an average opinion to guide the group. The method depends on the question being asked. For estimating questions, asking everyone to come up with a number on their own and then averaging the responses can be more accurate. For multiple-choice questions, voting and going with the majority can be more effective. Experts are most useful when dealing with problems at the intersection of knowledge and initiative. Groups often struggle to reach consensus due to the three choices: follow the will of the majority, debate the issue until they reach consensus, or use swarm intelligence. Groupthink is a dangerous phenomenon where members overvalue the group's ethics and insight. Swarm intelligence emerges when individuals spontaneously and voluntarily interact to solve problems, resembling stakeholders rather than shareholders. Swarms are more likely than other groups to share their power or even give it away.
Networks are sets of items and connections that emerge among people, often combining elements of both deliberate planning and randomness. They are not evenly distributed, with connections clustering according to a "power law," with a few nodes having more connections than most others. Understanding the hubs and shortcuts that link parts of a network is crucial in various fields, such as public health and marketing. To decipher the importance of information, one can use an approach from gold miners, pick up obvious gems, sift through the data until nuggets emerge, and look for patterns in the unsorted mass of data. Patterns can emerge naturally and spontaneously in all areas of life and using heuristics can help make quick decisions. These include recognition, fluency, weighing, taking the best, and “satisficing” or exceeding expectations.
Reference: previous summaries: https://1drv.ms/w/c/d609fb70e39b65c8/EV8_nILFMeBGqIyIpFQtSGAB8bX0HfvlKUXZ6IfYvgsxTA?e=BMT3LD
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