This is a summary of a book titled “Unsupervised” written by
Stuart Leaf and Daniel Doll-Steinberg, both of whom are investors in emerging
technologies. They argue that technological innovation is accelerating at an
exponential rate, leading to a "Cognitive Revolution." Artificial
intelligence (AI) is a foundational technology of the Cognitive Revolution,
with various types of AI being developed. These include weak or narrow AI,
strong or artificial general intelligence (AGI), and artificial super
intelligence (ASI). AI can hold conversations, create visual art, write
computer code, and compose graduate school-level papers. Methodologies for
simulating intelligence in machines include machine learning, neural networks,
deep learning, and generative pre-trained transformer models.
Quantum computing, a foundational technology, could
significantly increase computing processing power. Traditional computing stores
information in bits, representing binary choices, while quantum computers store
information in quantum bits, representing infinite outcomes. Quantum computers
can run many calculations simultaneously, producing many possible conclusions.
However, developers must resolve technical problems before general purpose
quantum computers become common. The cognitive revolution is expected to affect
many sectors of society, eliminate some jobs and create others.
Advances in wireless communication, such as 5G cellular and
satellite networks, will be crucial for the evolution of foundational technologies,
such as the Internet of Things. Enabling technologies, such as blockchain,
smart contracts, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), and
tokenization, will facilitate these technologies. Hardware advances will fuel
the Cognitive Revolution, with software, including cognitive abilities,
miniaturization, and interfaces, granting robots and other physical
technologies increased functions. The metaverse, a digitally generated virtual
world, could revolutionize commerce and entertainment. The energy sector will
experience significant change, with emerging technology bringing new
efficiencies to solar, wind, and geothermal power. AI and other emerging
technologies will affect various aspects of healthcare, from research to
treatments. Fintech is about to change banking, investment, and the financial
industry. Overall, the future of technology depends on everyone's ownership and
participation.
Technology is transforming various sectors of the economy,
including manufacturing, education, healthcare, and leisure and recreation.
Advances in additive technology, such as 3D printers, are accelerating the
adoption of digitally controlled automation to cut costs and improve speed,
quality, and safety. This shift could reduce dependence on foreign
manufacturers, a concern due to the COVID-19 era's supply-chain issues. Machine
learning advancements could turn computer programs into information gatekeepers,
potentially eliminating as many as 300 million jobs. However, machines will
eventually take control of their own development, writing their own code and
installing updates. Employment in the face of frontier technological advances
will depend on existing jobs that can be done differently and new jobs that
currently don't exist. The rise of digital newspapers and the rise of computers
and smartphones will also impact physical dematerialization. Computers will
increasingly take over human reasoning and skills to drive cognitive
dematerialization, such as in securities trading.
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