Thursday, January 11, 2024

 

This is a summary of a book titled “Unsupervised” written by Stuart Leaf and Daniel Doll-Steinberg, both of whom are investors in emerging technologies. They argue that technological innovation is accelerating at an exponential rate, leading to a "Cognitive Revolution." Artificial intelligence (AI) is a foundational technology of the Cognitive Revolution, with various types of AI being developed. These include weak or narrow AI, strong or artificial general intelligence (AGI), and artificial super intelligence (ASI). AI can hold conversations, create visual art, write computer code, and compose graduate school-level papers. Methodologies for simulating intelligence in machines include machine learning, neural networks, deep learning, and generative pre-trained transformer models.

Quantum computing, a foundational technology, could significantly increase computing processing power. Traditional computing stores information in bits, representing binary choices, while quantum computers store information in quantum bits, representing infinite outcomes. Quantum computers can run many calculations simultaneously, producing many possible conclusions. However, developers must resolve technical problems before general purpose quantum computers become common. The cognitive revolution is expected to affect many sectors of society, eliminate some jobs and create others.

Advances in wireless communication, such as 5G cellular and satellite networks, will be crucial for the evolution of foundational technologies, such as the Internet of Things. Enabling technologies, such as blockchain, smart contracts, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), and tokenization, will facilitate these technologies. Hardware advances will fuel the Cognitive Revolution, with software, including cognitive abilities, miniaturization, and interfaces, granting robots and other physical technologies increased functions. The metaverse, a digitally generated virtual world, could revolutionize commerce and entertainment. The energy sector will experience significant change, with emerging technology bringing new efficiencies to solar, wind, and geothermal power. AI and other emerging technologies will affect various aspects of healthcare, from research to treatments. Fintech is about to change banking, investment, and the financial industry. Overall, the future of technology depends on everyone's ownership and participation.

Technology is transforming various sectors of the economy, including manufacturing, education, healthcare, and leisure and recreation. Advances in additive technology, such as 3D printers, are accelerating the adoption of digitally controlled automation to cut costs and improve speed, quality, and safety. This shift could reduce dependence on foreign manufacturers, a concern due to the COVID-19 era's supply-chain issues. Machine learning advancements could turn computer programs into information gatekeepers, potentially eliminating as many as 300 million jobs. However, machines will eventually take control of their own development, writing their own code and installing updates. Employment in the face of frontier technological advances will depend on existing jobs that can be done differently and new jobs that currently don't exist. The rise of digital newspapers and the rise of computers and smartphones will also impact physical dematerialization. Computers will increasingly take over human reasoning and skills to drive cognitive dematerialization, such as in securities trading.


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