Saturday, July 19, 2014

Today we will look at the Markov chain a little bit more to answer the following questions:
Will the random walk ever return to where it started from ?
If yes, how long will it take ?
If not, where will it go.
If we take the probability that the walk (started at 0) attains value 0 in n steps as u(n) for even n, we now want to find the probability f(n) that the walk will return to 0 for the first time in n steps.
Let Xn, n >= 0 be Markov with transition probabilities pij. Let St (t >= 0) be independent from Xn.  Sn can be considered a selection.
The theorem for the calculation of f(n) is stated this way:
Let n be even and u(n) = P0 (Sn = 0). P0 denotes the return to zero.
Then f(n) = P0( S1 != 0,  ... Sn-1 != 0, Sn = 0) = u(n)/ n - 1
And here's the proof:
Since the random walk cannot change sign before becoming zero,
f(n) = P0(S1 > 0,  ... Sn-1 > 0, Sn = 0) + P0( S1 < 0, ... Sn-1 < 0, Sn = 0)
        which comprises of two equal terms.
Now,
        P0 (Sn-1 > 0, Sn = 0 ) = P0 (Sn = 0) P(Sn -1 > 0 | Sn = 0) which is the use of conditional probability.
we know that the first term is u(n) and given that the Sn-1 = 1 or -1 with equal probability. So the last term is 1/2. Sn =  0. By the Markov property at time n-1 we can omit the last event.
So f(n) can be rewritten as 2 u(n) 1/2 P0(S1 >  0, S2 > 0 ... Sn-2 > 0 | Sn-1 = 1)
and the last term by ballot theorem is 1/(n-1) which proves that f(n) = u(n)/n-1


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